C T Online Desk: Six months after Russian forces launched what they hoped would be a blitzkrieg invasion of Ukraine, the conflict has turned into a grinding campaign of daily air strikes and battles with no clear endgame in sight.
Much of the country’s east and south are under Russia’s control, depriving Ukraine of the Black Sea ports vital for the grain exports that are the lifeblood of its economy.
Russia is also suffering under Western sanctions, though few expect President Vladimir Putin to end the slow but steady push deeper into Ukraine anytime soon — let alone give up the territories already occupied.
How long could it last?
Both sides have sustained punishing losses of lives and materiel, but neither appears willing to consider a ceasefire.
Ukrainians believe they are in an existential fight to defend a nationhood that Putin dismisses as a historical fallacy.
“In such circumstances, nobody can win,” said Konstantin Kalachev, a Moscow-based political analyst. “This ‘special military operation’ could go on for years.”
“Russia is hoping to win by wearing them down… Time is not on Ukraine’s side, and its economy could break,” he told AFP.
Marie Dumoulin, a director at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said the vigorous support from Western allies would also make it harder for either side to back down now.
“Each side thinks they can still press a military advantage, so it’s unlikely that this is going end soon,” she said.
Putin has also framed the conflict as part of Russia’s resistance to an expansionist Nato, making any suggestion of “defeat” unacceptable.
He could punish Ukraine’s desire for closer EU integration by pushing toward the key port of Odessa, effectively landlocking the country and throttling its exports.
